Unit on Climate Change,Research and Development Initiative, Chuo University

GOSAT Validation in Central Asia

PROJECT OVERVIEW

Introduction

The Ministry of the Environment, aiming to continuously contribute to the advancement of climate change science and international climate change policies, is advancing projects related to the Greenhouse gases Observing Satellite “GOSAT,” “GOSAT-2,” and their successor “GOSAT-GW.” These projects involve measuring concentrations of key greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from space, in collaboration with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), following the Basic Space Plan.

International Trends

At the 49th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” were revised to incorporate the use of satellite data for the first time. This revision also highlighted the expectation for improved accuracy in the reporting of emissions by various countries through “GOSAT” and “GOSAT-2.”

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are obligated to report their greenhouse gas emissions and absorption. To enhance the transparency of these reports, Japan promotes the use of data observed by the GOSAT series for countries to compare and verify their CO2 emission inventories.

Thus Far

Since fiscal year 2018, the Ministry of the Environment, with the cooperation of the Mongolian government, has been comparing CO2 inventory data prepared by Mongolia with GOSAT observation data and developing technology to estimate emissions from GOSAT observation data through the “GOSAT Series Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimation Accuracy Evaluation Project targeting Mongolia.”

The comparison between the energy sector values in Mongolia’s CO2 emission inventory (2014 figures estimated for 2018 considering GDP) and the CO2 emissions estimated from GOSAT observation data for 2018 showed a generally good alignment. The Mongolian government highly appraised this result in December of fiscal year 2021, expressing a desire to use the emissions estimates derived from GOSAT for reference in preparing inventory reports for 2018.

Project Objectives

The project targeted Mongolia, a country with conditions relatively conducive to emission estimation using satellite observation data, due to its vast grasslands and urban areas centered around the capital, Ulaanbaatar. To enable other countries, besides Mongolia, to effectively utilize GOSAT series observation data for CO2 inventory reporting, it is necessary to evaluate and select effective emission estimation technologies that can be applied under various conditions.

Select and establish cooperative relations with countries for CO2 inventory comparison and verification

From the GOSAT shooting situation survey, it was found that CO2 emissions are on the rise in five Central Asian countries. A comparison between EDGAR CO2 emission data and GOSAT L2 products observation points overlaid with Google Maps identified 283 opportunity areas in these five Central Asian countries. India also showed numerous Opportunity areas across the entire country.

Focusing on five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan), and adding India and the Maldives, making a total of seven countries, information was organized by investigating GHG observation satellite data from the GOSAT series, collaborating research institutions, human exchanges, social policy situations, and GHG emission inventory data created by those countries.

Additionally, possible constraints including available ground observation data for CO2 and operational expenses were discussed with candidate countries to consider an agreement formation process for utilizing GOSAT series observation data in GHG inventory report preparation. As a result, the five Central Asian countries were identified as candidates for participation in the roundtable.

Due to the need to invite participants to the roundtable through diplomatic channels, preliminary explanations about the significance of the GHG emission estimation project were provided to the Ministry of the Environment, JICA offices, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

  • The Central Asian countries were selected as target countries that meet the adoption criteria.
  • Meetings with JICA and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were conducted to gather information about the five Central Asian countries.
  • Participation in the 30th-anniversary commemorative project for diplomatic relations establishment with Central Asian countries helped establish cooperation with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
  • Through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and local embassies, the project was communicated to government officials of each country, and participants for the roundtable were determined.
Uzbekistan

It is estimated that there are deep opportunities in Tashkent’s power plants and the industrial region of Khorezm. GOSAT captures CO2 from the five major power plants. With facility aging, urgent refurbishment and new installations are needed, and METI has already surveyed the potential with KHI, suggesting a high possibility for solution proposals.

Kazakhstan

Opportunities are estimated near the northern mines and gas fields, Ekibastuz power plant, Shymkent power plant in the south, and the Tengiz oil field along the Caspian Sea, among other major energy industry facilities.

Kyrgyzstan

 

With per capita emissions being the second lowest in Central Asia after Tajikistan, the top emission source is the “other sector” (commercial facilities, residential, primary industry), with few emission sources spread over a wide area and high emission areas limited to major cities. Hydropower being the main source of energy, large emission points are presumed limited. Opportunity is considered in Jalal-Abad (the country’s third-largest city), with emissions likely stemming from transportation and residential activities.

Tajikistan

With the lowest per capita emissions among the five Central Asian countries, more than half of the emissions are from agriculture (especially livestock), with low emission sources widespread. Major power plants are located near Dushanbe, which GOSAT also identifies as high emission areas, but opportunities are considered limited.

Turkmenistan

As a country rich in natural gas reserves, opportunities are recognized near the Zerger thermal power plant, power plants and gas fields near Mari, and the Cheleken oil field along the Caspian Sea.

India

Opportunities are recognized in large-scale coal-fired power plants, megacities, and IT industry clusters such as New Delhi (Haryana) and Kolkata (West Bengal), Uttar Pradesh, as well as the Dhibai gas field in the Bay of Bengal and the resource development area of the Mumbai Offshore oil field in Maharashtra. Utilization is expected in various high-emission areas including power plants, industrial clusters, and resource development areas.

Maldives

The CO2 emissions in the Maldives are the lowest among the countries surveyed, with power generation and mobile sources accounting for over 90%. Power generation is predominantly small-scale distributed diesel fuel due to the island nation’s geography. Although GOSAT does not observe high emission sources, GOSAT observation points within 2 degrees around the Maldives show potential. However, considering that one-third of the population lives on Male Island, GOSAT’s opportunity assessment is presumed to be based on the observability of Male Island.

Holding a Roundtable for the Selection of Countries for CO2 Inventory Comparison and Verification Other Than Mongolia

中央アジア5か国（カザフスタン、ウズベキスタン、タジキスタン、キルギスタン、トルクメニスタン）へ展開するべく、方法論を整理し、外務省及び各国大使館を通じて各国政府の担当者を2022年2月10日に招聘し、オンラインラウンドテーブル会議を実施しました。

会議ではモンゴルで先行しているCO2インベントリ比較・検証の成果を共有し、ラウンドテーブルに招待する被検証候補国におけるGHGインベントリの整備状況やニーズを理解した上で、GOSATデータの活用可能性について議論しました。
さらに、インベントリ比較・検証の成果を2026年～2027年に情報収集・準備プロセスが開始する第2回GSTに向けて活用することを目指すため、2021年11月から開始する第1回GSTの実施状況に関する最新情報及びGSTと強化された透明性枠組みとのリンクを説明したプレゼンテーションも行って共有しました。GSTに関する情報には、各国のインベントリの比較・検証の現状の整理も含めました。
各国との意見交換では、当技術の発信と各国のインベントリ作成に対する当技術の活用アプローチについて議論し、協働体制の構築に向けた必要な手順についても確認しました。

この結果 中央アジア5か国すべてが、GOSATシリーズを用いたGHG排出量推定事業に参加したいとの表明がありました。特に、中央アジアの中心国と位置付けられているカザフスタンの参加者からは、会議終了直後に「非常によかった。協力を続けたい」とのコメントが日本大使館を通じて外務省から報告頂いきました。

今後は、外務省及び中央アジア各国大使館にも協力を頂き、中央アジア各国と事業MOUを締結し、環境省が推進するGOSATシリーズを用いたGHG排出量推定手法を展開することが可能となりました。

To deploy the methodology to the five Central Asian countries, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies of each country were contacted to invite government officials of each country to an online roundtable meeting on February 10, 2022.

The meeting shared the results of CO2 inventory comparison and verification already conducted in Mongolia and discussed the feasibility of utilizing GOSAT data in invited candidate countries for GHG inventory, understanding their inventory preparation status and needs. Additionally, presentations were made to share the latest information on the implementation status of the first Global Stocktake (GST) starting in November 2021 and to explain the link between GST and the enhanced transparency framework, aiming to utilize the results of inventory comparison and verification for the second GST starting its information collection and preparation process from 2026 to 2027. Information related to GST included an overview of the current situation of inventory comparison and verification in each country.

During the exchange of opinions with each country, discussions were held on disseminating the technology and utilizing the technology for inventory creation in each country, confirming the necessary steps toward building a collaborative framework.

As a result, all five Central Asian countries expressed their desire to participate in the GHG emission estimation project using the GOSAT series. Particularly, comments from Kazakhstan’s participants, considered a central country in Central Asia, were reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Japanese Embassy immediately after the meeting ended, saying, “It was very good. We want to continue cooperation.”

In the future, with the cooperation of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies of Central Asian countries, it will be possible to conclude MOUs with Central Asian countries and deploy the GHG emission estimation method using the GOSAT series promoted by the Ministry of the Environment.

  • The roundtable meeting was a great success, with all five Central Asian countries expressing their desire to participate in the GHG emission estimation project using GOSAT satellites.
  • Particularly, confirmation from Kazakhstan’s participants, who were the last to confirm attendance the day before the meeting and expressed their desire to continue cooperation immediately after the meeting ended, was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs through the Japanese Embassy.

Evaluation of CO2 Emission and Absorption Accuracy in Candidate Countries

For the regions including the five Central Asian countries listed as candidates, the methodology for creating CO2 inventories using satellite data such as GOSAT was examined. This included comparing EDGAR and BUR, collecting information on local data, building forward analysis models, comparing ground observation data with simulation results, and organizing methods for comparing CO2 concentrations.

  • The comparison between each country’s BUR and EDGAR showed the potential to detect gaps through inverse analysis utilizing satellite data.
  • The forward analysis of CO2 using WRF Chem showed that column CO2 (XCO2) concentrations in the analysis target area, including the five Central Asian countries, are mainly influenced by contributions from Eastern Europe, Russia, and China. However, visible emission situations could also be observed in countries with relatively large CO2 emissions, such as Kazakhstan.
  • Under such conditions, the methodology for comparing each country’s CO2 inventory data through inverse analysis of XCO2 concentrations was examined and organized, focusing on approaches centered around Green’s functions.

Support for Information Disclosure

On December 21, 2021, the “Fiscal Year 2021 GOSAT Series Observation Data for Country-Specific CO2 Inventory Comparison and Verification Project JICA Central Asia Exchange Meeting” was held as an event to disseminate information, including information disclosure and publicity of the project’s results, in preparation for the roundtable. This international meeting was conducted online, targeting the five Central Asian countries, through JICA offices and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where information dissemination and exchange of opinions took place.

On December 27, 2021, the “Ministry of the Environment’s Projects in Central Asia Regarding Climate Change Ministry of Foreign Affairs Central Asia and Caucasus Division Exchange Meeting” was held to implement planning, information dissemination, and public disclosure of technical information for the exchange meeting of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Central Asia and Caucasus Division. The purpose and significance of the Ministry of the Environment’s project for estimating GHG emissions using satellites in Central Asia were explained.

These efforts facilitated the appropriate preparation for the roundtable, understanding of the project at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the concrete approach to the five Central Asian countries in the future. Additionally, the project was applied for recognition as a commemorative project for the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the five Central Asian countries through the Ministry of the Environment, allowing for expected publicity activities as a commemorative project.

  • Progress was made in surveying the acquisition status of GHG observation data at research institutions in each Central Asian country. Agreement was reached to collaborate on a proposal to consolidate and measure GHG sample specimens collected independently at research institutions in each country through Central Asian embassies in Mongolia.
  • Preparations will be made to include working group meetings and methodologies for field observations when concluding MOUs through the embassies of each country.

Holding and Operating an Expert Meeting

On March 1, 2022, the “Fiscal Year 2021 GOSAT Series Observation Data for Country-Specific CO2 Inventory Comparison and Verification Project Expert Meeting” was held, appointing five scholars with relevant expertise. The expert meeting presented the above results, conducted Q&A sessions on the future of the project in Central Asia selected for verification, and engaged in lively inquiries and discussions on the project’s policy and analysis methods from expert committee members.